Brookings Institution, Center on Social and Economic Dynamics
Bioterrorism Project: Application of Agent-Based Modeling for Developing a Policy Response to Bioterrorism
Economic disruption is one of the goals of terrorism. By modeling possible outcomes from bioterrorism attacks, the project seeks to inform policy decisions and reduce the bioterrorism threat. Since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and the subsequent anthrax outbreaks, bioterror concerns have focused on smallpox. Since routine smallpox vaccinations in the United States ended in 1972, immunnity from prior vaccinations has degraded. The Walker Foundation provided a seed grant for developing powerful computer simulations graphically illustrating the effects of a bioterrorism outbreak of smallpox under various hypothetical conditions. Based on the computer model, experts developed an alternative strategy that sharply reduces the logistical burden and public health risks associated with mass vaccinations. They exploit the scientific fact that epidemics are nonlinear threshold phenomena and can be made to simply die out under certain targeted preventive-vaccination strategies. The modelers meet regularly with the Secretary of Human Services' National Council on Public Health Preparedness.
Learn more about the
Brookings Institution.
Learn more about
A Containment Strategy for Smallpox Bioterror.