Purpose
- Investigates causes tending to destroy or impair the free-market system.
- Explores and develops market-based solutions.
Summary
This project will use the CACI software to investigate how the New England Region can successfully decarbonize their electric grid using nuclear power. The project will create new roadmaps showing how the region can reduce its dependence on fossil fuels. The education/advocacy group Eco-Nuclear Solutions will use these results to change the debate in New England over its energy future.
Description
Report #1
May 13 During April, I assembled data from New England’s grid operator, the Independent System Operator for New England, ISO-NE. This includes historical data from the past several years, including both demand and supply (solar, wind, nuclear, and gas generation), along with their projections for the next ten years and a very useful, detailed study called Economic Planning for the Clean Energy Transition (EPCET). This study looks at planned goals for reducing carbon emissions through 2050 and will be exceedingly useful in our work. We also explored a comprehensive series of studies that Massachusetts has conducted looking at decarbonization scenarios through 2050. Massachusetts has the largest population of the six New England states and has done the broadest set of forward-looking energy studies. They typically model the entire region, while focusing specifically on the state’s own legislatively-mandated goals. All of their scenarios rely on an expansion of renewable energy, especially offshore wind, to achieve their goals. With this data, we have set up the model for New England’s electric grid using 2024 weather patterns (especially solar and wind generation) as the guide for future energy generation projections. This data will form the basis for the modeling we will be conducting in the next several months.
Report #2
June 5 During May, I identified two sets of decarbonization scenarios I will analyze. One set was developed by the Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs. Massachusetts is the largest and most energy-active of the six states in the New England grid. It has conducted extensive studies of renewable-focused plans for the New England electric grid, leading to what they call the “2050 Decarbonization Roadmap.” Offshore wind and solar are the principal sources of electric power in their plan. There is no nuclear, but they recognize the need for something dispatchable to sustain the grid in no-solar, low-wind conditions; their plans use batteries and “demand response” (shutting down large users of electricity). I will suggest a better way, using flexible nuclear facilities. This idea became somewhat more viable in mid-May when Massachusetts’ Governor Maura Healey proposed repealing the current requirement for a statewide referendum vote before any new nuclear plants can be built. The other source of scenarios for my work is ISO-NE, which runs the New England grid. In October, 2024, it published the results of a comprehensive multi-year study entitled EPCET (Economic Planning for the Clean Energy Transition). It examined a number of scenarios, including one that introduced nuclear SMRs. As we would expect, they found very favorable results: “SMR results show that a renewable-dominant build-out that also includes 15.1 GW of SMRs achieves the states’ 2050 decarbonization targets while requiring 57% less new renewable capacity than the base Policy Scenario.” (This finding may be one reason why the Governor of Massachusetts is trying to open the door to nuclear for her state.) During June, I will examine each of these scenarios and see how inclusion of a significant amount of nuclear power (as the “backbone” of the system, not merely a “backup”) will affect performance and cost. Matthew Wald and I are working on a draft “master” article summarizing the work I’ve done and my findings using the CACI model. (We will probably give my version of the CACI model a new name, principally because CACI – the Center for Academic Collaboration Initiatives – no longer exists, and its web site has been taken down by the model’s original developers.)
Purpose
Climate change induced by the burning of fossil fuels is imposing added costs on the world economy. Cost-effective decarbonization of the electric grid is one of the major ways in which this harm can be reduced. This project provides clear persuasive evidence that intermittent renewable sources cannot accomplish what is needed, while nuclear power can meet the requirements of the grid. Further extensions of this work, under the heading of "Beyond Electrification", will show that the use of nuclear power to produce carbon-neutral synthetic fuels is a far more practical and cost-effective approach to decarbonization than attempting to electrify all applications of fossil fuels.
Scope
This project, in its first phase, uses a convenient computer model to demonstrate the essential role that nuclear must play in any decarbonized electric grid. The second phase will begin the exploration of practical alternatives to the complete electrification of energy now envisioned in many quarters.
